【異常事態!】【住宅クラッシュが始まった】崩壊スピードが2008年を上回った!※私がリーマンショックの再来だ!と騒ぐ理由
私が前回、レバナス1本リーマンさんの動画に補足説明で貼り付けたやつの住宅キャンセルの件について解説がありますね。
※レバナス1本リーマンさんに上手に解説してくれると嬉しいな!と思っていたら次の日に解説してくれました。流石です。ありがとうございます。
(思考が現実化した例なんだけど・・・神様がレバナス1本リーマンさんを動かしたのかも)
他のユーチューバさんたちの株上昇目線が可笑しくて可笑しくて・・・
もしかして、情報収集していないのか、大手メディアと同じく都合悪いことを隠しているのかもしれません。生き残るのは正しい情報を収集したひとのみです。
株価上がったとき、売り目線でポジション取れるか取れないかという現状です。
積み立てNISA等で購入した株を売ることもできるが、保持したままで
売りポジションのヘッジを掛けて、評価損を相殺させています。
どちらに転んでも、大損しないポジションです。
大幅に株価下落したときにポジション解消すれば、小遣い程度は稼げるかもしれませんが、リーマンショック時のように資産10倍になるようなポジションは取っておりません。だって儲けたあと絶対に気が大きくなり大損しそうだからです。(前回経験者)
しかるに、小遣い程度に収めれば、馬鹿みたいなポジションは取れないからです。
(宝の持ち腐れだと言われようが、私の性格では博打無理なんですよ)
また貼っときますね。
This is scary. 😬
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% CANCEL RATE.
Meaning that over 2/3 of Homebuyers walked away from their contracts in the quarter. Leaving KB Homes with a massive pile-up of inventory.
Last year the Cancel Rate was only 13%. pic.twitter.com/4O9OaWO8K0
1) This type of Cancellation Rate is even worse than what happened in 2008 Crash.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
Back then builders like DR Horton peaked at a 50% Cancel Rate.
And we already blew past that in late 2022.
2) The result is a massive pile-up of New Home Inventory.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
Data from Zonda shows that National Quick Move-In Inventory is now around 32,000.
That's up 200% from one year ago.
And up 50% from pre-pandemic, 2019 levels. pic.twitter.com/bHASBG2209
3) And there's even more New Homes coming in 2023.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
Because even as builders have cut back on starts, they are still building nearly 800k single-family homes actively under construction.
Near the highest level of all-time. Many of which will hit the market in 2023. pic.twitter.com/84GeBlcOJF
4) So here's the fact pattern for Builders:
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
-Horrible buyer demand. Record Cancellations.
-Current Inventory highest since 2015
-Future Inventory even higher based on homes under construction
You would think based on that, Builder Stocks would be tanking right?
WRONG.
5) KB Homes, the builder with 68% Cancellations, is actually UP on stock price over the last month.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
And also up over the last 6 Months. pic.twitter.com/knLzaOD0tG
6) DR Horton, the largest builder in America, is trading near their all-time high at $95.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
And they're up 85% over the last 5 Years. pic.twitter.com/iYR6cv1Wlc
7) Home Builder stocks are in a massive BUBBLE right now.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
Homebuyer Demand is literally at its lowest levels since 2008 Crash. Yet Builder stocks are trading near all-time highs.
Makes no sense.
8) Until you look at the P/E Ratio for builders. And you realize they're actually "cheap" based on Earnings.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
DR Horton: 5.8x P/E
KB Homes: 4.1x P/E
So investors say to themselves, "wow, I can get good value by buying builder stocks. Even in a Housing Crash/Recession."
9) The problem: Home Builder Earnings lag by about 12-18 Months.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
Through most of 2022, when builders announced earnings, it was income based on contracts signed from buyers in 2021. During the peak of the Housing Bubble.
Creating low P/E Ratios and the illusion for "value".
10) But now that the calendar is in 2023, and we've had six months of suppressed sales, and cancel rates are high, builders are going to have some BRUTAL earnings reports coming up.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
Expect more 50%+ cancel rates. Expect huge YoY declines in earnings.
11) The Builder Stock Bubble is a great example of the mania that still exists today in the market.
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日
Fundamentals are clearly saying: big issues for Housing Market and Builder Earnings in 2023.
But investors are completely ignoring it.
12) If you want to learn more about Home Builders, their inflated stock prices, and where the Housing Market is heading in 2023, check out this article I wrote on the Reventure Blog. https://t.co/xUhSGrCyUe
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) 2023年1月17日